Apocalypse sometime

In 1957 Nevil Shute wrote, or more properly published a book titled "On the Beach," a sort of post-apocalyptic novel set mostly in Australia: The world was ending — at least all animal life was ending — because of a nuclear conflict which left the Earth ravaged by radioactive fallout.

Pat Frank, who earlier had addressed nuclear war effects ("Mr. Adam,"1946) and averted nuclear war ("Forbidden Area," 1956) in 1959 addressed actual nuclear war and its effects in "Alas Babylon," a novel which remains popular and in print almost 50 years later. In a manner of speaking, "Alas Babylon," is a sort of apocalyptic and post-apocalyptic novel, in which Russia, much of Europe and much of the United States have been largely depopulated and ruined industrially and agriculturally by the effects of nuclear war.

Robert A. Heinlein earlier had written a longish short story titled "The Year of the Jackpot," which also dealt with the end of the Earth, perhaps more realistically, because after violent storms, earthquakes and an invasion of the United States, the planet is put out of its misery when the Sun — our sun — explodes.

"On the Beach" and "Alas Babylon" deal with what at the times they were written seemed a fairly realistic human-caused end of civilization, as we knew it.

Heinlein, a science fiction master, realistically dealt with a situation which at sometime — some billions of years hence — will in fact put and end to the planet.

Nuclear war and its effects as described in the stories, like the modern end-of-world terror, global warming, was the result of the arrogance of human beings. For a brief time, because of the almost automatic retaliation, the aggressive arrogance needed to start a war was quelled.

Now, because of the arrogance of modern people, who can't seem to even step out to the public library where they can learn the Earth, which orbits the Sun, is in its orbit because of the Sun's pull. It survives as a viable planet because of its position relative to the Sun appears to be ideal for all the sorts of life that occupy the Earth.

Now we are told by the green screamers that carbon dioxide, a gas that along with oxygen and nitrogen makes life possible on this planet, is going to destroy us all because it is causing the planet to heat up and will eventually fry us all.

The fact (fact!) is that what mild global warming that was taking place stopped 10 years ago seems to mean nothing.

So now, we're told, we can only save the planet with something called biofuels, more specifically ethanol, which can be mixed with gasoline to make a "cleaner" fuel. Of course in order to do that, grain — primarily corn — production must be directed toward automotive food supply rather than human food supply. For us to continue eat grain products, it will be necessary to create more croplands, thereby destroying the wilder or more natural lands the screamers for ethanol say we must preserve. Those lands, in addition to croplands, all absorb great quantities of what is essentially a benign and useful gas, carbon dioxide, which makes plants grow.

The screamers seem to forget — perhaps don't know — that this multi-billion-year-old planet, daughter of the Sun and with its help has been warming and chilling for most of those billions of years. Colder periods, like the Earth's very first colder period when the icecaps were initially formed, are preceded by warm periods. Or, I suppose, you could say it the other way. But cold periods the geologic (and some fossil) records tell us, last far longer than any warm periods.

Neither warmer periods nor colder periods appear, by the fossil record, to be greatly influenced carbon dioxide.

But of course the Sun influences everything on this planet. Sunspots appeared to have a greater influence during warming periods, but guess what? There are no sunspots nor have there been any since a brief spot was noted Jan. 4 and started the new cycle.

So what's that mean? It means the Sun is entering what they call a solar minimum cycle: A cooler period, perhaps much cooler.

Maybe we should stop worrying about carbon dioxide from cars and worry about growing food for people and animals.

If the Earth gets on a few degrees cooler we'll probably need it. You do need more in colder climates, like that very likely coming.


A few links:
http://www.iceagenow.com/
http://www.co2science.org/
http://www.spaceweather.com/